Non-farm payrolls preview: October numbers show a skew

A look at the data ahead of the non-farm payrolls release

ISM manufacturing employment 52.4 vs 52.0 exp and 52.7 prior

There is a positive skew in the numbers releaed so far, including ADP and both ISM reports.

Yesterday's report from Revelio Labs got some attention as a weak point.

The market pricing for a December rate hike is down to 73% in light of the equity market volatility and the big question remains: What will Trump do in the Iran war.

That and the outlook for AI with Anthropic's IPO upcoming are the key variables right now.

S&P 500 futures are slightly higher but they were higher yesterday before the wheels fell off.

The US dollar is doing better on safe haven flows and a strong jobs report would add to the dollar bid and also get the market worrying about a scenario where the Fed has to hike even as the AI trade legs lower.

BMO notes that "41% of previous unemployment prints for October have been lower-than-expected, 22% have been higher-than-estimates, and 37% have matched the consensus," while there is a modest negative skew versus expectations on the headline number.

From investingLive