Goldman Sachs Cuts Gold Price Target: Sees $4,150 by End-2026, Fed Rate Hikes the Key Variable

In its latest precious metals research report, Goldman Sachs' commodities research team cut its end-2026 gold price target to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650, and its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in the November 5 report, titled "Precious Metals Analyst Report: Long-Term Bullish on Gold, But Not Now," that the Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot is suppressing Western investors' hedging demand, and that despite continued strong central bank buying, gold's near-term upside remains significantly constrained.

The report comes as international spot gold fell more than 1% on Thursday, touching a low of $4,036.82 per ounce.

In the prior two sessions, however, spot gold had rebounded as oil prices and US equities slid, briefly recovering above the $4,100 per ounce mark.

The macro policy hedge demand that previously drove gold's rally—concentrated in call option demand—is expected to return to historical averages rather than revisit the highs seen in early 2026.

Goldman also outlined a more adverse policy scenario: if the Fed hikes again in March 2027, delays rate cuts, or keeps the eventual policy rate at a higher level, gold could reach only about $4,660 per ounce by end-2027, further below the $4,800 base case.

Once the cutting cycle begins, the rate constraint on gold will be lifted, rate-sensitive Western gold ETF inflows could be reactivated, and private investor demand could once again align with structural central bank buying.

However, Goldman explicitly noted that central bank buying can only provide structural support and cannot single-handedly drive a sharp rise in gold prices in a high-rate environment.